Consumer Confidence Index is the Poll That Counts

This morning’s Wall Street Journal has the following:

NEW YORK — U.S. consumer confidence fell to an all-time low in October, after a slight rise a month earlier, and expectations are even bleaker, a report released Tuesday said.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence for October dropped to 38.0, compared with a revised reading of 61.4 in September. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a reading of 51.5.

The consumer expectations index for the state of economic activity over the next six months declined to 35.5 in October from 61.5 in September.

“The impact of the financial crisis over the last several weeks has clearly taken a toll on consumers’ confidence,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center. “Their earnings outlook, as well as inflation outlook, is also more pessimistic, and this news does not bode well for retailers who are already bracing for what is shaping up to be a very challenging holiday season.”

The present situation index, a gauge of consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions, fell to 41.9 from 61.1 in the prior month.

 Since 60 percent of the CCI is weighted by consumer’s expectations of the future with the election only 7 days away, I am assuming there is a real fear that Obama will win the election. 

Thinking people understand that the MSM are in the tank for Obama and manipulate their polling data giving Obama the advantage.  However, the CCI could show an actual landslide for McCain on voting day.  It can be a real buzz kill when people are worried about their future and the Democrat candidate is talking “spread the wealth around”.  By landslide I mean 5 to 8 points.  “Change” just might not cut it.  Real fear could rule the day on the 4th and give McCain the edge he needs.

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